Line movement is the change in betting lines offered by sportsbooks over time. This movement occurs with the point spread, totals, or moneyline odds. Various factors influence line movements, including public betting patterns, sharp action from professional bettors, weather, or other significant news affecting the teams or players. Making well-informed decisions requires understanding these factors and their potential impact on line movement. Here are some specific ways line movement influences your football betting choices:
Identifying value
Line movement helps bettors identify value in the betting market. When a line moves significantly, it often indicates that there has been substantial betting action on one side. For example, many bettors are confident in their victory if the favourite in a football match moves from -200 to -250 in the moneyline odds.
This movement also creates value on the other side of the bet. In the above example, the underdog’s odds may have shifted from +180 to +220. This presents a potential value betting opportunity, as the payout for a successful wager on the underdog has increased. Observe line movements closely to spot these value bets as they boost their long-term profitability.
Tracking sharp money
Monitoring line movement also helps you track the actions of sharp bettors, also known as “smart money” or “wise guys.” These are professional bettors who are highly knowledgeable and tend to wager large amounts. When sharp money enters the market, it causes significant line movement. Following these line movements and understanding the underlying reasons gives insights into where bright cash flows are. This doesn’t necessarily mean unthinkingly following every line move but using it as a data point in your analysis. Sharp money often moves the line for a reason, and identifying these trends enhances your decision-making process.
Public betting patterns
Line movement also reflects the general public’s betting patterns. Lines are adjusted based on bets and the money wagered on each side. If many casual bettors are backing one team, the line may shift to make the other team more attractive to potential bettors.
For example, if a famous team like FC Barcelona plays at home against a less-favoured opponent, the public might heavily favour Barcelona. This could cause the spread or moneyline odds to move significantly in their favour. This presents an opportunity to consider a wager on the underdog, especially if you believe the public sentiment overvalues Barcelona’s chances of winning.
Middle opportunities
Line movement creates “middle” opportunities for bettors. A middle occurs when you bet on a line that moves significantly enough to make a potential scenario where you could win both your original wager and the opposite side of the bet. For example, you bet on a team favoured by -3 points early in the week. If the line moves to -7 by game time, and your original team wins by 4 or 5 points, you would win both your original bet and the opposite. Middles are rare but lucrative; the line movement is crucial in identifying these opportunities.
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